THE Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has lifted its forecast for the WA crop now being harvested to 19.88 million tonnes (Mt), up from 18.61Mt seen in its November report.

In its latest monthly report released today, GIWA report author Michael Lamond said this season, with a week or two of harvest to go in some areas, will go down as “defining”, given the high amount of WA grain grown on limited rain.

“There is no single factor influencing the incredible quantity of grain being harvested right across the state on very little rainfall,” Mr Lamond said in the report, adding that pre-harvest yield estimates for wheat, barley and canola have ended up being well below the results.

“The total tonnage for the state will easily end up being the third-largest harvest on record.”

Mr Lamond said the timing and intensity of rainfall, limited waterlogging, few cold temperatures in winter, low disease, and low weed-competition levels all meant less stress on crops during the growing season in areas away from the Geraldton port zone, which did experience some significant waterlogging.

“Other factors such as more subsoil-moisture reserves than first thought in some areas, the large area of crop in the low-rainfall regions on fallow, and crops not producing high biomass, effectively saving the moisture in the ground for later in the season, have helped as well.

“The season effectively managed the crop canopy, restricting biomass and converting more rain than is usually the case into grain.”

Mr Lamond said new varieties keep getting better, with more top-end yield potential, and improved water and nitrogen-use efficiency.

“This is more obvious in years like the one we have just had.”

Mr Lamond said while issues existed with small grain and light testweights in most regions of the state, the largest impact on grain quality has been the rainfall at the start of harvest that hung around for several days. resulting in sprouted grain.

“With further rainfall events, the falling numbers have continued to decline to a point where normally ‘safe’ varieties that have genetically high falling number indexes have dropped below the point where they can be delivered into the higher-grade segregations.

“This hit on price has taken the shine off a high production year for affected growers.”

Mr Lamond said wheat grain protein was low across the state due to dilution from the high yields, even where there were high screenings.

“Barley malt deliveries are down on recent years, but due to the large area planted, the spread of that area across the regions, and high yields, there looks to be adequate tonnages to meet market requirements.”

Mr Lamond said the final production figure from the WA harvest could exceed the 19.88Mt currently forecast.

Source: GIWA

Further detail on crop conditions in individual WA port zones can be found as part of the full report on the GIWA website.